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俄罗斯计划研发核动力水下自主航行器  

2015-11-13 23:22:44|  分类: 装备介绍 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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电视台泄露核鱼雷计划 或为俄方有意为之


  俄罗斯政府11日证实,两家国有电视台“意外泄露”一份有关核鱼雷系统的秘密研发计划,包括设计图和多处细节。俄政府说,这份文件永远不应该被公开。
  不过,一些观察人士认为,文件并非意外泄露,而是俄方有意为之,意在警告西方国家。
  俄罗斯NTV电视台和第一频道电视台在10日发布的一段视频中泄露这份秘密武器系统研发计划,包括多处有关核鱼雷的细节、图片和设计图。视频显示,武器系统名为“Status-6”。
  这份秘密文件显示,新武器系统由总部位于圣彼得堡的红宝石设计局研发,包括由核动力潜艇携带的远程核鱼雷。
  文件中说,核鱼雷一旦爆炸可“造成大范围放射性污染”,致使敌方海岸区域“在很长一段时间内不适宜进行军事、经济、商业以及其他活动”。
  美联社报道,这段视频10日录制于索契,当时俄总统弗拉基米尔·普京和多名军方官员正开会。摄像机越过一名将军的肩膀,拍下“Status-6”研发计划。
  普京的发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫承认这份秘密文件泄露。他说:“一些秘密信息被一台摄像机拍下是事实,因此这段视频随后被删除……未来,我们无疑会采取一些保护措施,防止这类事件再次发生。”
  虽然有关秘密文件的视频已经被删除,但不少网站仍在转载视频截图。
  多名专家说,这份秘密文件遭泄露并非意外,而是俄方有意为之,意图提醒美国及其盟友,俄罗斯正在研发新式杀伤性武器。
  这些专家说,很难想象国家电视台的一名摄影师可以在有关军事问题的会议上从这么近的距离拍摄会议文件。
  美联社说,普京本周就国防问题召开4轮会议,目的是推动军事现代化,以应对因乌克兰危机而紧张的俄罗斯与美国、欧盟的关系。
  俄罗斯独立军事分析师亚历山大·戈尔茨说:“我感觉,这份文件公开的目的是吓唬全世界。”
  美联社援引一些军事分析师和军事评论员的话报道,核鱼雷计划始于1950年代,由苏联“热核弹之父”安德烈·萨哈罗夫提出,意在通过向美国发射大量核鱼雷制造海啸和放射污染,致使美国海岸线附近地区不适宜人类居住。
  这项计划被苏联否决,原因之一是受当时海军技术水平所限,苏联潜艇无法在不被发现的情况下接近美国海岸。
  军事分析师帕维尔·费尔根豪尔说,“Status-6”是萨哈罗夫所提计划的新版本。“新计划意图向美国海岸发射一枚一亿吨当量的核弹……制造高放射性海啸。”
  这份武器研发计划显示,新式鱼雷可以实现跨海打击,射程达一万公里。这一数字遭到一些军事专家质疑,认为不可能实现。
  一些观察人士说,鱼雷的实际射程可能比预计短很多,但体积也会更小,加之,计划所说鱼雷可在水深1000米处发射,速度可达每小时105公里,这意味着这种鱼雷难以被定位和拦截。
  瑞士独立分析师帕维尔·波德维格说:“探测这种鱼雷可能与探测一艘潜艇有很大差别。”波德维格主持一个研究项目,名为“俄罗斯核力量”。
  不过,波德维格对文件内容的真实性表示怀疑。他说,俄方有意公开研发核鱼雷计划看起来具有威胁性,但却不考虑技术角度是否现实。“这种事(有意泄露文件)在我看来是一个疯狂的举动。”(记者石中玉,新华国际客户端报道)


俄罗斯可能计划开发一种水下无人自主航行器

[据俄罗斯《生意人》网站2015年11月12日报道]  在11月10日国防部官员例会上,俄罗斯总统普京讨论了反击北约导弹防御系统的措施,克里姆林宫担心导弹防御系统将削弱俄罗斯的核威慑。
普京提出一种可能的反制措施,推动克里姆林宫发展“可穿透任何导弹防御的打击系统。”会议议题包括国防部官员曾考虑的一份文件中提出的明确观点。
这份文件提出了一种普京谈到的“打击系统”。
据《俄罗斯力量》博客的消息称,这份文件包括计划开发一种可由潜艇携带的水下
自主航行器,可对沿海的重要区域进行核打击。该研制项目被称为“海洋多用途系统‘Status -6’。”
据《俄罗斯力量》的译文报道,这种武器系统旨在“对敌方沿海地区经济的重要构成进行破坏,并通过制造广泛的放射性污染区域,导致长期内不适合从事军事、经济或其他活动,对敌国造成不可接受的损失。”
据这份文件报道,这种无人机可由俄罗斯已于三年前开始研制的两种新型潜艇发射。据称,无人
航行器的最大航程达到10000公里,可在1000米深水下航行。

俄专家:美国反导系统面对水下核威胁将虚弱无力
19:03 2015年11月13日(更新 20:19 2015年11月13日)
俄罗斯总统新闻秘书德米特里·佩斯科夫确认,俄方一些电视台上曾报道过总统军事会议涉密系统“STATUS-6”。就此问题,俄罗斯战略和技术分析中心专家瓦西里·卡申为“卫星网”做了专评。

在俄罗斯电视台节目中,轻轻地晃过有关俄方研发的新式核武系统页面 — 巨大的被称为"STATUS-6"的战略鱼雷。从描述中可以看到,这种鱼雷可对沿岸城市和设施进行核打击。鱼雷行走距离很远,大约为1万公里。这种无人潜艇是核武载体,可在海底深处以大约1000米的速度快速行驶。
此前,普京总统曾谈及,俄罗斯正在研制可使任何反导系统归零的武器。从实际看,鱼雷的研制尚处于早期阶段,其生产也不会早于2025年。目前尚不清楚设计结构的关键环节,其中包括动力装置。这种鱼雷将由正在建设中的"别尔哥罗德"和"哈巴罗夫斯克"级潜艇携载。
鱼雷创意本身并非新鲜事物。苏联著名科学家、政治异见者安德烈·萨哈洛夫在上世纪60年代初支持过T-15战略鱼雷项目。这种鱼雷可配备最大的高达亿吨爆炸力的弹头。认为,这种爆炸力足以引发能够摧毁沿岸城市的海啸。甚至,冷战正酣的时候,苏联领导人都认为这种想法太过可怕,因而未能实施。也许,本次的"STATUS-6"鱼雷,应该是爆炸力小很多、但更具隐秘性和远航能力的武器。
毫无疑问,美国对反导系统的任何投资都难以确保这种新式水下武器形成的威胁。从理论上说,这种装备可被发现且被摧毁。但为此需在所有海岸投巨资建反潜艇系统。
"STATUS-6"拥有洲际弹道导弹的远程能力,而且不受现有公约或武器控制和缩减文件的限制。从现有国际法看,这种鱼雷在没有核弹头的情况下可自由出口。原则上说,俄方可将这种系统(无核弹头)转交给自己的伙伴,比如中国和印度。因为俄罗斯主要城市位于大陆深处,而岸边城市也多在封闭式海洋、比如波罗的海、黑海岸边。也就是说,俄罗斯出口这种武器,自身并不会受到什么伤害。
此外,理论上说,这种需要若干天甚至若干周才能抵达目的地的系统,可将其撤出战备状态。完全有可能,在冲突开始之际、也就是未到核战阶段时发射鱼雷,这样,有希望在冲突解决的情况下下令鱼雷自行摧毁。


2015年11月13日 - kktt - 长缨在手  敢缚苍龙

俄罗斯计划研发核动力水下自主航行器 - kktt - 长缨在手  敢缚苍龙
 

Is Russia working on a massive dirty bomb?

On November 10, 2015 President Putin held a regular meeting with his generals in Sochi to discuss development of the Russian strategic forces. The president used the occasion to complain again about U.S. missile defense plans and to warn that Russia will do whatever it takes to preserve the strategic balance.

But that was not the most interesting part of the news story. One sharp observer (MJ) noticed that the camera took a peek at one of the documents prepared for the meetings (it is at 1:46 in the news story). It showed a summary of one of the projects that presumably were discussed at the meeting as part of the plan to restore that strategic balance that the U.S. missile defense system so blatantly undermines.

The project is called "Ocean Multipurpose System 'Status-6'" with the TsKB MT Rubin design bureau listed as the lead developer (Rubin is the design bureau that built virtually all submarines that are currently in service). A brief paragraph describes the mission of the proposed system as follows:

Damaging the important components of the adversary's economy in a coastal area and inflicting unacceptable damage to a country's territory by creating areas of wide radioactive contamination that would be unsuitable for military, economic, or other activity for long periods of time.

The picture that follows shows that at the core of the weapon system is an underwater autonomous drone ("self-propelled underwater craft" or SPA), which could be delivered by one of the two submarines - Project 09852 or Project 09851. For some reason, the drone is shown as attached to the bottom of the 09852 submarine, but not to the 09851 [UPDATE: Colleagues tell me that the vehicle attached to the 09582 sub is not the drone pictured later on the slide]. The text is hard to read, but it appears that Project 09852 submarine will carry four drones and Project 09852 - either 3 or 6. Given that 09852 is a smaller submarine (its displacement is shown as "10000 t" vs. what looks like a larger number for 09852), it's probably 3. It certainly does not look like "1", although "2" is a possibility. [UPDATE: I am told that a better quality photo shows that the number is "6".]

Interestingly, these two submarines are relatively recent projects. Project 09852 was laid down at Sevmash in December 2012. It is said to use the hull of the Belgorod submarine of the Project 949A/Oscar II class. The first Project 09851 submarine, Khabarovsk, was laid down in July 2014. (Project 09851 was also mentioned in the R&D known as Kalitka-SMP.)

Again, the text is barely legible, but it appears that the drone would be able to travel at the depth of up to 1000 m at a fairly high speed (something like 105 km/h?). The range appears to be listed as 10000 km, which is a bit hard to believe, but this is what the slide says. The diameter ("caliber") of the drone appears to be more than 1 meter (probably 1.6 m), the general's hand hides the length of the device.

The drone appears to be nuclear-powered - the fourth compartment is marked "Reactor module". This would explain the range, I guess, although it would need some guidance system to find its way around.

Further down the list, there is a drawing of the system's components - command and control, support ships (non-nuclear submarine "Sarov" and some surface ship - Zvezdochka rescue ship I'm told), and something else that we cannot see.

Finally, the timeline at the bottom of the slide says that pilot system will be built by 2019, so the state tests can be conducted in 2019-2020.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. First, it's an interesting security lapse. I know that quite a few people believe that the leak was intentional, but I don't think it's the case. Indeed, as I understand, the news organizations quickly removed the clip from their sites. On the other hand, Bill Getz did have a story about Russian underwater drone, Kanyon, two months ago. The name is different, but it appears to be more or less the system Gertz's Pentagon sources described. So, maybe Moscow decided that the leak would not be such a big deal. Still, they would have probably preferred to keep some details out of it.

As for the project itself, Russia is not the only country that is working on underwater drones. But the payload looks like a massive "dirty bomb", which strikes me as absolutely crazy. A number of people noted that the description does not necessarily exclude the possibility that the initial "damaging" can be done by a regular nuclear device. Which only makes this whole thing even more insane - do they think that a nuclear weapon on its own would not inflict "unacceptable damage"?

UPDATE 11/12/15: The story generated quite a buzz, which is probably what the authors of this whole thing counted on. The consensus that is emerging from a number of discussions is that the "leak" was intentional. Moreover, a colleague who follow these things quite closely made a strong case that the "drone" on the slide is probably just an enlarged (and modified) image of a "regular" torpedo (such as UGST). This would explain the unusually large "combat module" and a number of other inconsistencies. However, the rest of the slide seems real - the submarines, the Zvezdochka ship, etc. Indeed, it is quite possible that the project is real as well - the Soviet Union did work on an underwater vehicle like this in the 1980s (here is an interesting story, although I would take it with a pinch of salt). Specifically, some work has been done on the vehicle's nuclear reactor. The project was abandoned, of course, but these things rarely die. In fact, NITI in Sosnovy Bor is building a new facility to test liquid metal-cooled naval reactors. It is probably not related to this drone, but who knows.

Still, the whole thing strikes me as crazy regardless of whether the project is real or not. If it is real, I find it quite appalling that the ideas of this kind ever reach the level of a discussion with the president. If it is an attempt of high-level trolling, it's even worse - if people in the Kremlin believe it was a clever way of sending some kind of a signal, they probably lost all their marbles.



Russian state TV footage reveals 'oceanic multi-purpose' torpedo-based nuclear system
Jane's Defence Weekly
Bruce Jones, London
2015-Nov-13

    Russian state television footage reveals potential development of a new nuclear torpedo
    Officials confirm development of a system that could offer a new deterrent angle for Russia

Two federal television channels carried footage on 9 November of a potential new Russian Navy nuclear torpedo.
The development was revealed during footage showing President Vladimir Putin, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, and military commanders meeting in Sochi on the Black Sea to discuss defence issues, including Russian defence budget funding and key US developments such as missile defence.
News coverage included shots of documents being reviewed, with some of the documents appearing to depict weapons systems being developed.
Some of the illustrations were blurred. One however was not and footage showed a system titled 'Okeanskaya Mnogotselevaya Sistema Status-6' (oceanic multi-purpose system Status-6). Although the footage subsequently was edited out, the programme was widely recorded and was rapidly commented on in Russian media and elsewhere.
The images suggest that the Status-6 system is a long-range, high-speed nuclear torpedo being developed by the St Petersburg-based Rubin Central Design Bureau.
Powered by a small nuclear reactor and appearing to have a nuclear weapons capability, the torpedo is described in the material as having a range of more than 6,000 n miles, with a speed of 60 mph at a maximum depth of 3,000 ft. An armoured version able to withstand torpedo countermeasures was also outlined.
According to a description of the system's capability, it is designed to deny access to important economic facilities in an adversary's coastal area and to be able to inflict extensive radioactive contamination that would render such areas incapable of supporting military, economic, or other activities for a lengthy period.
According to the material, the torpedo should be ready to undergo acceptance trials in 2020.
In apparent reaction, President Putin's press secretary Dmitri Peskov confirmed that the classified system had been shown on television but pledged that the error would not be repeated.

ANALYSIS
The following analysis has been provided by Karl Dewey (CBRN analyst), Emily Chorley (CBRN analyst), and Neil Gibson (Senior Weapons Technical Analyst) from the IHS Jane's team.
Types
If assertions that this is a large radiation weapon are true, it could be what is known as a 'salted bomb'. A salted bomb is a nuclear weapon that uses a modified tamper/reflector/jacket manufactured from a material, the elemental make-up of which has been chosen such that it is suitable for neutron activation and the production of long-lived fallout.
In a standard nuclear weapon, the tamper acts to increase the efficiency of a fission weapon by acting as a confinement system, slowing the disassembling fissioning core. It may also act as a neutron reflector, reflecting scattered neutrons out from and back into the reacting core. In thermonuclear weapons, a jacket also surrounds the fission and fusion stages and is used either for protection and confinement or - when the jacket incorporates uranium-238 - to enhance the yield of the weapon by the element's fast fissioning.
In salted weapons, the addition of a suitable element to any three of these items results in that element capturing neutrons and becoming 'activated' - in other words, producing a highly radioactive and generally long-lived isotope of that element. When this isotope is dispersed as part of the fallout, it enhances the activity and increases its longevity in comparison to that produced by standard devices. An example of this would be the use of stable cobalt-59 isotope. After exposure to and absorption of neutron radiation, its activation would produce the highly radioactive isotope cobalt-60, the decay of which to nickle-60 would emit both short-range beta and long-range gamma radiation.
In September, the Washington Free Beacon reported that "Russia is building a drone submarine to deliver large-scale nuclear weapons against US harbours and coastal cities". The article identified the drone as the 'Kanyon', and described it as an "autonomous submarine strike vehicle armed with a nuclear warhead ranging in size to 'tens' of megatons in yield. A blast created by a nuclear weapon that size would create massive damage over wide areas". If this is the same project as Status-6, it would suggest that Russia is working on a thermonuclear weapon that would not only destroy large areas, but would render such areas uninhabitable for generations.
Arms control issues
The main international treaty covering the development of nuclear weapons is the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), under which Russia is a recognised Nuclear Weapons State (NWS) and is permitted to have a nuclear arsenal, pending universal disarmament. Despite a general commitment to disarm, there are no international restrictions on an NSW developing new nuclear weapons types.
The majority of US and Russian disarmament activity occurs within the context of bilateral agreements, with NEW START being the latest accord between the two. NEW START regulates the number of deployed strategic weapons; however, it does not cover 'sub-strategic systems', of which there is no clear definition.
Strategic signalling
The language of 'inflicting unacceptable damage' suggests that Russian planners are aware that either weapon type would likely precipitate a rapid escalation of force - although, with a torpedo travelling through water, an inability to confirm a Russian platform as the source of the launch could slow attribution and response. Destroying access to US coastal areas would significantly affect not only the United States, and its ability to recover as a trading power in a post-nuclear environment, but would also impact on its key allies.
The question remains however of what need Russia has for such a weapon? With its existing triad-based nuclear arsenal Moscow's deterrent capacity has long been underpinned by the threat of retaliatory strikes. The prospective development of Status-6 may represent an attempt - along with other developments such as hypersonic vehicles and missiles including the RS-26 Rubezh - to signal Moscow's intent to overcome in practice, and also to deter further development in principle, of US missile defence systems by undermining their perceived effectiveness against Russian capabilities.
Rather than an accidental display, the broadcast of these plans by state media and the subsequent confirmations by officials bear the hallmarks of an intentional leak of information. If Russia were to manufacture this type of torpedo, it would be difficult to demonstrate its capability through testing (the usual method of strategic messaging relating to a new capability); thus, leaking information in this way at a preliminary stage of development may enhance both the Russian narrative and its message to US policy circles.

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