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2015年3月美俄核武库数据  

2015-04-06 20:07:01|  分类: 核武器 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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New START Treaty Aggregate Numbers of Strategic Offensive Arms
Fact Sheet
Bureau of Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance
April 1, 2015

   

(Data in this Fact Sheet comes from the biannual exchange of data required by the Treaty. It contains data declared current as of March 1, 2015. Data will be updated each six month period after entry into force of the Treaty.)[1]


Category of Data

United States of America

Russian Federation

Deployed ICBMs, Deployed SLBMs, and Deployed Heavy Bombers

785

515

Warheads on Deployed ICBMs, on Deployed SLBMs, and Nuclear Warheads Counted for Deployed Heavy Bombers

1597

1582

Deployed and Non-deployed Launchers of ICBMs, Deployed and Non-deployed Launchers of SLBMs, and Deployed and Non-deployed Heavy Bombers

898

890

 


[1] The complete unclassified data for the United States is available upon request from the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, U.S. Department of State, Washington, DC. Please contact Blake Narendra at NarendraBM@state.gov.


March 2015 New START aggregate numbers released

The U.S. State Department released aggregate New START numbers from the 1 March 2015 data exchange. The release shows that at that date Russia reported having 515 deployed launchers and 1582 operationally deployed warheads. It also reported having 890 total launchers.

Compared to the September 1, 2014 data, the number of launchers decreased - from 528 to 515. The number of warheads decreased more dramatically - from 1643 to 1582. The total number of launchers went from 911 to 890.

The corresponding U.S. numbers are 785 deployed launchers, 1597 warheads, and 898 total launchers.

[Arms control] [April 1, 2015]



New START Treaty Count: Russia Dips Below US Again


Posted on Apr.02, 2015 in Arms Control, Nuclear Weapons, Russia, United States by Hans M. Kristensen

2015年3月美俄核武库数据 - kktt - 长缨在手  敢缚苍龙
 

Russian deployed strategic warheads counted by the New START Treaty once again slipped below the U.S. force level, according to the latest fact sheet released by the State Department.

The so-called aggregate numbers show that Russia as of March 1, 2015 deployed 1,582 warheads on 515 strategic launchers.

The U.S. count was 1,597 warheads on 785 launchers.

Back in September 2014, the Russian warhead count for the first time in the treaty’s history moved above the U.S. warhead count. The event caused U.S. defense hawks to say it showed Russia was increasing it nuclear arsenal and blamed the Obama administration. Russian news media gloated Russia had achieved “parity” with the United States for the first time.

Of course, none of that was true. The ups and downs in the aggregate data counts are fluctuations caused by launchers moving in an out of overhaul and new types being deployed while old types are being retired. The fact is that both Russia and the United States are slowly – very slowly – reducing their deployed forces to meet the treaty limits by February 2018. 

New START Count, Not Total Arsenals

And no, the New START data does now show the total nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States, only the portion of them that is counted by the treaty.

While New START counts 1,582 Russian deployed strategic warheads, the country’s total warhead inventory is much higher: an estimated 7,500 warheads, of which 4,500 are in the military stockpile (the rest are awaiting dismantlement).

The United States is listed with 1,597 deployed strategic warheads, but actually possess an estimated 7,100 warheads, of which about 4,760 are in the military stockpile (the rest are awaiting dismantlement).

The two countries only have to make minor adjustments to their forces to meet the treaty limit of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads by February 2018.

Launcher Disparity

The launchers (ballistic missiles and heavy bombers) are a different matter. Russia has been far below the treaty limit of 700 deployed launchers since before the treaty entered into effect in 2011. Despite the nuclear “build-up” alleged by some, Russia is currently counted as deploying 515 launchers – 185 launchers below the treaty limit.

In other words, Russia doesn’t have to reduce any more launchers under New START. In fact, it could deploy an additional 185 nuclear missiles over the next three years and still be in compliance with the treaty.

The United States is counted as deploying 785 launchers, 270 more than Russia. The U.S. has a surplus in all three legs of its strategic triad: bombers, ICBMs, and SLBMs. To get down to the 700 launchers, the U.S. Air Force will have to destroy empty ICBM silos, dismantle nuclear equipment from excess B-52H bombers, and the U.S. Navy will reduce the number of launch tubes on each ballistic missile submarine from 24 to 20. 

2015年3月美俄核武库数据 - kktt - 长缨在手  敢缚苍龙
In 2015 the U.S. Navy will begin reducing the number of missile tubes from 24 to 20 on each SSBN, three of which are seen in this July 2014 photo at Kitsap Naval Submarine Base at Bangor (WA). The image also shows construction underway of a second Trident Refit Facility (coordinates: 47.7469°, -122.7291°). Click image for full size,

Even when the treaty enters into force in 2018, a considerable launcher disparity will remain. The United States plans to have the full 700 deployed launchers. Russia’s plans are less certain but appear to involve fewer than 500 deployed launchers.

Russia is compensating for this disparity by transitioning to a posture with a greater share of the ICBM force consisting of MIRVed missiles on mobile launchers. This is bad for strategic stability because a smaller force with more warheads on mobile launchers would have to deploy earlier in a crisis to survive. Russia has already begun to lengthen the time mobile ICBM units deploy away from their garrisons.

2015年3月美俄核武库数据 - kktt - 长缨在手  敢缚苍龙
Modernization of mobile ICBM garrison base at Nizhniy Tagil in the Sverdlovsk province in Central Russia. The garrison is upgrading from SS-25 to SS-27 Mod 2 (RS-24) (coordinates: 58.2289°, 60.6773°). Click image for full size.

It seems obvious that the United States and Russia will have to do more to cut excess capacity and reduce disparity in their nuclear arsenals.

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