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朝鲜导弹试验  

2016-11-22 15:29:26|  分类: 半岛风云 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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朝鲜昨日发射一枚“舞水端”导弹遭失败
韩联社首尔10月16日电 据韩国联合参谋本部(联参)16日消息,朝鲜15日下午12时33分许在平安北道龟城市方岘机场附近发射一枚疑似“舞水端”中程弹道导弹,但发射以失败告终。
这是朝鲜自6月22日以来时隔115天再射“舞水端”中程导弹。当时,导弹按预定飞行轨道飞行400公里,上升至最大定点高度1413.6公里,朝鲜成功以高角度发射方式试射了“舞水端”导弹。韩军认为,至今朝鲜发射了7次“舞水端”中程导弹,但仅成功一次。

韩军正分析朝鲜从内陆射弹原因
韩联社首尔10月17日电 韩国联合参谋本部15日表示,韩军正在对朝鲜改从平安北道方岘机场射弹的原因进行分析。该发射地属内陆地区,朝鲜从内陆地区发射“舞水端”导弹尚属首次。
朝鲜此前发射6次“舞水端”导弹,发射地均为有中程导弹基地的东海岸元山一带。朝鲜可能是想避开韩美情报部门的监视演练导弹突袭,也有可能是想尽量将发射地北移,以便将韩国纳入“舞水端”导弹射程内。
朝鲜射弹19个小时后韩军才公布消息,联参本部就此表示,因发射不久便告失败,韩军未能准确研判,在技术分析上耗时较长。联参本部还就导弹爆炸时间表示,未能探测到明显的飞行轨迹。

朝鲜今晨试射一枚舞水端导弹遭失败

韩联社首尔10月20日电 据韩国联合参谋本部(以下简称联参)20日消息,当天上午7时许,朝鲜在平安北道龟城市方岘机场一带试射一枚导弹遭失败。韩美研判,朝鲜此次试射的导弹疑似舞水端导弹。
联参分析认为,朝鲜今日试射是想为15日试射失败挽回颜面。朝鲜15日试射的一枚舞水端导弹在发射后立刻发生爆炸,试射以失败告终。朝鲜从4月15日至今8次试射舞水端导弹,除6月22日的试射之外,其余7次全部遭到失败。6月22日朝鲜试射两枚舞水端导弹,其中一枚最高高度达到1413.6公里,飞行距离达到400公里,被认为取得成功。
朝鲜今日再遭失败,有分析质疑朝鲜中程弹道导弹技术有根本性缺陷,预计朝鲜为了验证性能,有可能在短期内再次试射导弹。

朝舞水端导弹未出鞘先爆炸烧焦发射车

韩联社首尔10月26日电 韩国政府一名消息人士26日表示,朝鲜20日发射失败的“舞水端”导弹刚点火未升空就爆炸,发射车也被烧焦。
据悉,若有发射人员坐在发射车前座,可能会造成人员伤亡,但详情尚待了解。据韩国军方和情报部门分析,当时朝鲜将经改进的液体火箭装载到“舞水端”导弹进行试验,可能是该火箭的燃料导管等缺陷酿成爆炸事故。
该人士表示,发射失败的“舞水端”导弹弹头形状保持原样,似非因弹头重量超负荷导致爆发。另外,金正恩声色俱厉地催促证明导弹性能也可能是发射接连失败的原因。
朝鲜从4月15日至今8次试射舞水端导弹,除6月22日的试射之外,其余7次均失败。6月22日朝鲜试射两枚舞水端导弹,其中一枚弹道最高点距地1413.6千米,飞行距离达到400公里,被认为取得成功。


Did North Korea just test missiles capable of hitting the U.S.? Maybe.

By Anna Fifield
The Washington Post  October 26

朝鲜导弹试验 - kktt - 长缨在手  敢缚苍龙
Composite satellite images taken on Oct. 15 and Oct. 20 show Panghyon Air Base in North Korea after missile tests were conducted. (Planet Labs)

TOKYO — North Korea has made no secret of its goal to produce an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States mainland, giving it the means to send a nuclear warhead to its archenemy.

Kim Jong Un’s rocket scientists are thought to be several years from being able to do this, instead concentrating on intermediate-range missiles that can reach only as far as Guam.

But now some analysts are asking: Did North Korea just try to launch two long-range missiles?

“We think it is important that people consider the possibility that this was a KN-08 test,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California, referring to the intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, by its technical name.

North Korea conducted two missile tests earlier this month, on Oct. 9 and 19. Both took place at an air base in Kusong on North Korea’s west coast, on the other side of the country from the usual Musudan test site near Wonsan, on the east coast.

The United States Strategic Command said Wednesday that both tests are “presumed” to be of Musudan missiles, and South Korean military officials have said the same. The Musudan is technically capable of flying as far as 2,400 miles, putting Guam within range and almost reaching Alaska.

These would mark the seventh and eighth Musudan tests this year. Only one, in June, was a success, flying about 250 miles and reaching a surprisingly high altitude.

But after poring over satellite photos enhanced with a near infrared band of light, Lewis and his fellow experts at MIIS think there’s an even chance that the launches were of ICBMs.

“We’re not fully persuaded that it was a Musudan,” Lewis said, noting that Strategic Command, known as StratCom, twice misidentified three missiles that North Korea launched in September.

“We still think people are being too quick to jump to the conclusion that this was a Musudan. Even if it’s only 50/50, being shocked half of the time is still bad,” he said.

Looking at before-and-after satellite imagery from Planet Labs, a San Francisco-based imaging company, Lewis and his colleagues found burn scars after each missile firing, showing where the hot exhaust scorched the pavement and grass. Near infrared light can discriminate between burned and untouched parts of vegetation.

朝鲜导弹试验 - kktt - 长缨在手  敢缚苍龙
Non-proliferation analysts say that the burn scars suggest a huge explosion.(Planet Labs)

“The first scar is really big. That is consistent with a catastrophic failure,” he said, noting that it was possible that the explosion damaged the launch vehicle on which it was mounted. “The second burn scar is small, like the missile flew some distance before whatever went wrong.”

These big burn scars are much bigger than what had been seen after Musudan tests, and the fact that they happened on the other side of the country added to suspicions about the kind of missile being tested.

Other analysts said it is possible, if not probable, that the tests were of ICBMs.

“While this was most likely a Musudan test, the possibility of a KN-08 cannot be ruled out,” said John Schilling, an aerospace engineer who frequently writes about the North’s missiles. Schilling expects North Korea’s road-mobile ICBMs to reach operational status early in the next decade — perhaps within five years.

“It seems most likely that the latest test was an attempt to test the Musudan from an operational launch facility rather than a test facility,” he said, explaining the difference in test location.

Although noting that StratCom should be able to distinguish between a Musudan and a much larger ICBM, he also pointed out that the U.S. agency had misidentified the three missiles launched last month. StratCom first called them short-range Rodongs, then medium-range Musudans. They turned out to be extended-range Scud missiles.

“I do not place high confidence in their ability to distinguish a KN-08 from a Musudan,” Schilling said. “And I do not think anyone should have high confidence in their ability to predict North Korean behavior regarding missile testing.”

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., chief analytics officer at AllSource Analysis, a Denver-based consultancy, also said the likelihood was that the missiles were medium-range Musudans.

“Given their concentration on perfecting the Musudan, I would think they were testing a Musudan,” he said, saying that the test site could have been moved simply to make it harder for intelligence agencies to monitor the activity.

Although all but one Musudan test has failed, North Korea has shown rapid advances with its missile program this year. It successfully launched a ballistic missile from a submarine in August and launched what it said was a satellite in February. That launch was widely considered a cover for an ICBM test.

Japan’s Asahi television network, citing an unnamed North Korean military source, reported earlier this month that Kim had ordered ICBM development to be finished by the end of this year. A spokesman for North Korea’s space agency last week pledged that the state would continue working on its “peaceful” satellite program.

Regardless of whether this latest test was of medium- or long-range missiles, analysts agree that they are cause for concern.

“What’s more concerning is not an individual test or two individual tests, it’s that they’re approaching their missile development in a very pragmatic way,” Bermudez said.

“What they’re doing is exactly right. They are testing, and they are testing often,” he said. “This is the way you really learn how to develop a ballistic missile, and that’s what worries me.”

In the United States, there is growing recognition of the increased threat posed by North Korea.

James R. Clapper Jr., the director of national intelligence, said Tuesday that the United States had to assume that North Korea would be able to mount a nuclear warhead on a missile capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States.

“We ascribe to them the capability to launch a missile that would have a weapon on it to reach parts of the United States, certainly including Alaska and Hawaii,” he said in a discussion at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“They could do it. We have to make the worst-case assumption here,” he said.

Clapper also said that trying to persuade North Korea to give up its weapons was now probably a “lost cause,” given that the program was its “ticket to survival.”

Earlier this month, Jami Miscik, previously a top analyst at the CIA, warned against underestimating North Korea’s capabilities.

“The fact these rocket launches are failing shouldn’t give anyone comfort,” she said at Fortune’s Most Powerful Women summit, according to the magazine. “They fail and they fix that thing, and it might fail for another reason, but they’re advancing in terms of their capability.”
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